Finding 3:
Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-ranging impacts
- Treeline is expected to move northward and to higher elevations, with forests replacing a significant portion of existing tundra, and tundra vegetation moving into polar deserts.
- More-productive vegetation is likely to increase carbon uptake, although reduced reflectivity of the land surface is likely to outweigh this, causing further warming.
- Disturbances such as insect outbreaks and forest fires are very likely to increase in frequency, severity, and duration, facilitating invasions by non-native species.
- Where suitable soils are present, agriculture will have the potential to expand northward due to a warmer and longer growing season.