Porcupine Caribou Herd Population Model and Climate Change

Climatologists predict that summers will become warmer and snowfall will increase in northwestern North America as a result of human-caused increases in greenhouse gases.

Research has shown that caribou are harassed by mosquitoes and parasitic flies more during warmer summers. During warm weather the insects are more active and the caribou spend more time standing around and less time feeding.

It is harder for caribou to get at their winter food (mainly lichens) when the snow is deep. In winters with a deep accumulation of snow they need to spend more time pawing the snow to reach the lichens. This uses more energy and takes time away from eating.

These are just two of the ways in which climate affects the caribou in their yearly cycle.

Research has established links between these climate variables and the amount of time cow caribou spend feeding and the energy they use in their various activities. This information about feeding, activities and energy use has then been linked to body condition of the cows and their rates of pregnancy and calf survival.

These links have been put together in the form of models which can be used to look at how changes in climate conditions could affect the Porcupine Caribou Herd. The models can also be used to look at how changes in harvest could affect the Herd.