Mackenzie Basin Impact Study
The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) assessed the potential impacts of global warming on regions and inhabitants within an extensive northern area of Canada. This six-year cooperative study represented one of the first attempts at an integrated regional assessment of climate change. The project leader was Stewart Cohen, currently with the Adaptation and Impacts Research Division of Environment Canada, located at the Department of Forest Resources Management of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.
The MBIS framework was developed in two distinct phases. The first was the pre-research phase, from 1989-1992. The second was the research and consultation phase, 1992-1997, in which researchers and stakeholders shared their views on both science and policy issues specific to the Mackenzie Region. Interim Report #1 was produced in March, 1993 and a Mid-Study Workshop was held in Yellowknife in April 1994. The principal study researchers and basin residents exchanged knowledge and evaluated progress in the various study areas. Interim Report #2 was released in November 1994.
The MBIS Final Workshop was held in Yellowknife in May 1996. Over 100 people attended, including researchers and stakeholders form the study area and other parts of Canada as well as scientists from the United States, Europe and Australia. One indicator of the interest attracted by MBIS internationally is a decision by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) to use the MBIS experience as a model for similar integrated regional impact studies for the Barents Sea Impact Study (BASIS) and Bering Sea Impact Study (BESIS).
The MBIS Final Report was released in June 1997 and is a 400-page technical document containing:
- summaries of climate impact assessments of land, waterways, forests, animals, economy and communities;
- condensed versions of the round-table discussions with regional stakeholders;
- contributions from studies conducted in other countries, and;
- statements from government representatives.
Results from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) indicate that a warmer future would include more landslides from permafrost thaw, increases in forest fires, reductions in minimum water levels during the low water season, and northward shifts of the boreal ecosystem. Stakeholders have indicated that adaptation is possible as long as these changes are slow and predictable, but sudden changes would be more difficult to cope with.
Traditional lifestyles could be at risk from climate change, but this new challenge will not occur in a vacuum. Population growth, economic and institutional changes will influence the North's sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate variability and climate change. They will also influence how regions and countries respond to the prospects of a global scale phenomenon that could affect their climate no matter what they do on their own. Since there are many stakeholders, all of them can be part of the solution. There is a tendency to assume that national governments are the only actors on climate change, but they are only one of many. The MBIS Final Report includes a number of recommendations:
- governments to include climate change in water, forest and other management agreements for natural resources as well as to encourage and support community-based monitoring and archiving programs;
- communities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, participate in monitoring programs and support training on adapting to climate change;
- private sector industries such as forestry, transportation, mining, construction and oil and gas to include climate change in research, planning and design of projects such as pipelines, dams and tailing ponds.
- researchers to incorporate traditional knowledge into data bases, to consider scenarios beyond the doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations, to use regional institutions for co-ordinating monitoring and archiving, and to provide reports in plain English.
Legal frameworks, development plans, infrastructure and lifestyles have generally been created on the implicit assumption that climate would not change during the lifetime of such creations. Future climate stability, however, cannot be taken for granted. Long term visions are needed to address the climate change issue in a holistic way. There are new questions not only about adaptation to climate variations and extremes, but also about the broader relationship between "global warming", global environmental change (population growth, biodiversity) and sustainability. This is indeed a challenge for all of us.
A 20-page Summary of Results is available online in English and French. The MBIS Final Report is available in English electronically (9.4 MB pdf) or in hard copy at a variety of libraries throughout Canada.
