Northern Climate ExChange

September 2000 Workshop:
A Northern Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change

Contents

Presentation Summaries

3.1   Gap Analysis: An Assessment of Information Documenting the Impacts of Climate Change on Northern Canada

Anne Munier, Aynslie Ogden
Northern Climate ExChange

Mike Gill, Joan Eamer
Environment Canada, Canadian Wildlife Service

Background

The concept of human induced climate change was first highlighted in the 1970's. However, this issue did not receive international attention until the late 1980's. Increasing public awareness forced governments to provide greater resources to research and policy initiatives.

In the past decade, the level of research effort towards understanding, preventing and mitigating climate change impacts has greatly increased. An overall vision of where efforts and resources should be allocated has been absent. This is evident by a number of initiatives with overlapping efforts.

Small and remote communities characterize Northern Canada. These communities are expected to face considerable challenges associated with climate and environmental change. A considerable amount of knowledge regarding climate change lies in these communities. However, communication pathways between researchers, communities, First Nations, governments and industry are limited. This has limited the exchange of both local and scientific knowledge.

The objective of the gap analysis is to provide an overall broad-scale analysis of our state of knowledge of climate change impacts on human and natural systems across Northern Canada. By identifying sources of information regarding climate change and its impacts on Northern Canada, the database produced by this project will also improve accessibility of all types of knowledge to communities, researchers, policy makers and governments.

Methodology

The project involved the identification, access, synthesis and organization of information sources that deal with the impacts of climate change on Northern Canada. Information sources reviewed included journal articles, conference proceedings, research license compendiums, databases, and consultation with local experts and researchers. Information collected includes documented scientific, local information. The collection and assessment of the state of local information was undertaken with assistance of consultants Legend Seekers (Yukon) and Geonorth (Eastern Arctic including Northwest Territories and Nunavut).

Data sources were organized into seventeen matrices:

Climate change projections were compiled based on general circulation models:

For each of the systems, a table (matrix) was constructed that lists climate change projections on the horizontal axis, and system components on the vertical axis. The state of knowledge (good, fair, poor) was determined for each relationship of system component and climate change projection.

Preliminary findings

To date, only a preliminary assessment of the state of knowledge has been completed as members of the project team are preparing objective ranking criteria to assist in our evaluation. However, a number of trends have been observed in our analysis of information that is available on the impacts of climate change in northern Canada. These trends include:

3.2   A Preliminary Assessment of the State of Documented Local Information of Climate Change in North-Eastern Canada

Natasha Thorpe, Dyanna Riedlinger, Shari Fox
Geonorth Consultants Ltd.

Preliminary findings of the availability of documented local information on climate change impacts in the Eastern Arctic, including Nunavut, Northwest Territories and the Hudson Bay Region (Northern Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Labrador) were presented by Geonorth Consultants.

Methods

To locate sources of local information, internet web searches, libraries, email requests to experts were searched for sources of published and unpublished information on climate change impacts. Sources included journal articles, reports, theses, conference proceedings and video productions. Both academic and community sources of information are included in the local information database.

Preliminary findings

To date, 60 document sources of local information were found. This relatively low number reflects the following:

To date, for levels of analysis were undertaken to identify gaps, strengths and weaknesses in information sources -- where (region), how (format), content, and keywords. Information will also be assessed for continuity, duration, regional extent, and type of information.

The greatest number of information sources pertain to the Western Arctic, Mackenzie Basin, Central and Eastern Arctic, and not specific to a region. There was less information found for the northern provinces and Labrador. However, this assessment may be misleading due to disparate geographical scales and populations of the various regions considered by this study.

The format of the information found is strong in books, reports, and journals, and relatively weak in video, maps, raw data, brochures, etc. This raises an interesting finding in that the format of local sources of information are more accessible to researchers and academics, and fewer information sources are available in the format more readily accessible by communities.

Keywords were used to describe the knowledge contained in the sources of local information that were reviewed in this study. Popular keywords include climate, traditional knowledge, land use, land, human activity, and wildlife. Relatively scientific keywords, such as invertebrates, streams, forests, glaciers, ground ice, ice cores, landslides etc. were not commonly used to describe local sources of information. This leads us to the preliminary conclusion that locals can offer detailed knowledge at a small scale. Therefore, local information on the impacts of climate change are most relevant at this level.

In terms of content, local sources of information reviewed to date are relatively strong in covering weather and seasonal change, and human impacts of climate change. Local information is relatively weak in historical references (archives) that may be a valuable source of knowledge but difficult and expensive to access.

Preliminary conclusions

Based on our analysis and information reviewed to date, we have drawn the following preliminary conclusions:

Preliminary recommendations

Based on analysis and information reviewed to date, the following recommendations are made:

3.3   Climate Change and the Central Yukon

Mark O'Donaghue
Regional Biologist

The Village of Mayo, the "hottest and coldest spot in the Yukon", is located at the confluence of two rivers. Over the past few decades, residents have noticed changes in local climate and environmental conditions. A general warming trend, greater extremes in weather systems, and changes in the behaviour and abundance of wildlife are among the many observations that residents have made. These changes have created real issues that the community has no choice but to deal with on a daily basis.

The Village of Mayo is experiencing increases in maintenance requirements for local roads, dykes, and the sewage lagoon -- arising from the trend towards increasing temperatures and melting of permafrost. Construction of a new school has faced several unanticipated challenges that may be attributable to changing environmental conditions. The First Nation of Na'cho N'y'ak Dun is coping with the implications of declining fish stocks on subsistence food supplies, and the impacts of prolonged leaf miner infestations on local aspen stands.

Mayo has seen severe flooding and forest fires in the past. Will climate change result in larger and more frequent flooding? Are long periods of drought predicted in this region that will change the frequency and severity of forest fires, or water supply to the local hydro dam? How have climate and environmental conditions in the 1990s differed from the rest of the century?

Information requirements to assist this community in dealing with these issues are continually evolving. Climate and environmental change is straining local budgets and abilities to cope with changing conditions. In terms of information on climate and environmental change, the Village of Mayo and the First Nation of Na'cho N'y'ak Dun require:

The community acknowledges that there is, and always will be, some level of uncertainty associated with information on climate change. However, at the community level it is useful to fully understand the nature of the information that is available to make appropriate decisions in response to climate change.

The Village of Mayo and the First Nation of Na'cho N'y'ak Dun are engaging in a long-range planning exercise to address the specific consequences of climate change on infrastructure, renewable resources, placer-mining, and energy requirements in the community. The Community Development Fund has provided funds to the Village to compile information to develop a baseline understanding of the impacts of climate change on the environment of central Yukon, specifically to determine how conditions in the 1990s differed from the rest of the century. A graduate student at Carleton University, Vicky McCoy, and her supervisor, Dr. Chris Burn, are assisting the Village with completing this analysis. To review this information, the Northern Climate ExChange is hosting the Central Yukon Climate Change Workshop on February 19-20, 2001 to assist the community in developing strategies that are specific to the issues faced by this community.

3.4   Options for the NCE Information System

David Hik
University of Alberta

Despite increasing awareness of the problems associated with climate change, governments, non-governmental organizations and other organizations are still responding in an ad hoc manner. As well, given the highly variable and specific problems associated with climate change, decision-making processes will need to be made at local levels where there is less available and accessible information.

Information used in decision-making processes currently flows in one direction, from global to regional to local levels. One consequence is that the relevant information required at the local level is not incorporated into larger scale processes, and as a result, planning for variability and change is difficult. There is a need information at local levels to be more accessible for local decision making processes, and to enhance regional and global predictions. The NCE has a role in facilitating the flow of information, particularly at local levels, which can then be applied to decision-making processes. It will be difficult to undertake appropriate mitigative and adaptive options in the absence of information about climate change impacts.

Mark O'Donaghue made several important points when discussing the situation in Mayo. The information needs of the communities are:

  1. knowledge about what is happening right now at various scales
  2. accurate and agenda-free information and options for mitigation and adaptation, and
  3. appropriate responses targeted at the community level.

The NCE Information System could incorporate elements that provide information about scientific and local information concerning climate change impacts. Although a searchable database is important, the most crucial elements will likely be links to an experts database, summaries of what is known about climate change in a particular region, and the capacity to discuss issues of concern with other communities attempting to manage similar problems. Although portals to the NCE Information System need to exist at different levels, is it essential that the information provided is relevant to concerns that communities may have about climate change related impacts.

3.5   The Role of a Climate Change Database for Northern Canada

Frank Duerden
Ryerson Polytechnical University

Introduction

The purpose behind asking what we do and don't know about climate change impacts is to identify priorities for future investigation and action. From a pragmatic standpoint the question is important because it is individuals, businesses, agencies and governments that have to react to stresses created by climate change. From the standpoint of agencies two courses of action may be contemplated, one of these is ameliorating or mitigating the changing climate, the other is dealing with consequences of change. Although some measures to ameliorate climate change could be seen as broadly environmentally beneficial, the degree of international cooperation required combined with uncertainty regarding the mechanics of climate change mean that it is not realistic to think that we can reverse the process. We thus have to consider dealing with the problem as it arises.

Climate change is not new

The considerable hype about climate change has been counter-productive, creating the notion that suddenly we have to be aware of climate and its impacts; that we suddenly have to adapt. The reality, of course, is that in the north populations have been living with the rhythm of the climate, and adapting to changes for thousands of years. Changes in ocean temperatures impacted on Inuit harvest practices; the Hypsithermal impacted Yukon populations, as did the climatic stresses resulting from the Klutan volcano. The impact of past changes were doubtless brutal---but there is a continuity of adaptation, and the accumulation of knowledge about change, all of which fed (feed) into essential decision making processes regarding sustenance. To populations who have lived on the land in the north and have experienced changing environments for thousands of years the message that the climate changes may not be big news. Conversely to Euro-Americans (notably southerners) who perfected sedentary living and developed all sorts of devices to eliminate the impacts of climate (central heating, underground malls, air conditioning) it perhaps comes as a bit of a shock that way of life can be threatened by climatic events. Notwithstanding these observations it is important that people at all levels become vitally aware of the possible impacts of climate change.

The project that was discussed at the workshop is concerned with identifying our state of knowledge regarding climate change and establishing what we need to know to address the issue. Pragmatically the output should have two roles. First, raising general awareness of the possible impacts of climate change; secondly as a decision support tool. Regardless of location, humans at all scales of organization,---the individual, house-holds, businesses, governments---make decisions incorporating information about climate and information on the impact of climate. They all deal with change at different levels, daily or seasonal. The annual round of First Nation harvest practices, construction schedules in northern environments and snow clearance strategies in southern cities such as Toronto have their basis in climatic cycles. Here, however, we believe that we are dealing with generally predictable events and people make decisions based on the notion that trends that have taken place last year or for the last several years will continue. But even in this apparently predictable world with seemingly sophisticated approaches to gathering and using information we are dealing with uncertainty. In a study we conducted of attitudes towards snowfall in eight cities in southern Ontario several years ago we noted that while good information feeding into decision making processes generally minimized disruption due to snowfall, major disruptions persisted and strategies developed essentially reflected a sense of uncertainty. Two years ago Toronto had a major snow storm and did not know what to do!

Uncertainty

The reality is that changes are taking place; we do not know the precise nature of these changes, but observations of people on the land and the observations of scientists tell us that the physical environment is changing; and in some parts of the north are changing rapidly. And while we know that physical changes are taking place we know perhaps even less about the impact of change on infrastructure, community economies (broadly defined) or way of life. The one thing to be said with any certainty is that we are dealing with uncertainty. As resource managers at all levels know (e.g. Mitchell (1995)), although we cannot know the future with certainty, accumulating as much information can go some way towards reducing uncertainty. We see this at many levels, from the manner in which local information which is, continually updated to provide the detailed environmental and ecological information required to support harvesting over vast regions, through to the assembly of detailed scientific information on hydrology to attempt to predict river-basin impacts (flooding etc). In short, identifying the nature of probable changes and their connection to current land-use practices reduces uncertainty and thus the range of possibilities facing decision makers. We cannot know with certainty how change will take place or what the nature of the response should be to these changes. However, we do know that the more knowledge we have, the more we can reduce uncertainty and identify the most promising approaches to dealing with the consequences of climate change.

Uncertainty and a database for northern Canada

Dealing with climate related events is costly. Very broadly these costs come out in two ways. One of these is in the form of damage, losses, disruption, through failure to respond, the other is because of "option paralysis", wanting to respond but not knowing what possible options there are or not knowing which options are the most desirable. The persuasive reason for developing an easily accessible database on climate change is that it could save individuals, First Nation Councils, communities and businesses a considerable amount of money through anticipation of possible impacts and providing information on possible courses of action. This can be cast in a "benefit-cost" framework (for example, in some cases it is cheaper to respond than to do nothing). In more appropriate human terms the benefits can be expressed in terms of health, employment, quality of life etc. The geography of the north (its vastness; small populations; isolation; lack of a driving imperative for collecting detailed information in the past) has resulted in "spotty" information of varying degrees of quality, located in different places, and based on a range of different experiences. A consolidated data-base would be very useful; it would provide "one source shopping" for individuals, businesses and governments seeking information on change. It would also facilitate the sharing of information and experiences.

Who is the information for?

Although there is a vast amount of literature on climate change in Canada, and a plethora of initiatives, programs, investigations etc, but few seemed to have paused and asked the question, who is this for? Will the intended "end-user" make use of the information? There seems to be sense that someone will read reports etc. and act on them. Ultimately it is at the community level, where impacts will be felt, where pressures to do something will be felt, where decisions have to be made that prognosis about change and impacts have value. The population of northern Canada numbers less than 100,000 who make their home in some ninety widely scattered communities, and it is in these communities that the impact of climate change will be felt. How will information enter into community decision making? For example, how is information made available to a community regarding change? Who informs? Who acts? Will it be incumbent on governments to act? Will it be an expectation? How well informed are communities in terms of what to expect?

To some extent these questions are answered if we consider a range of possible questions that different players may well ask about the future climate. How will harvesting be affected? What will happen to winter ice formation? Will it impact on the ability to hunt? Will it create problems for winter road construction? What will be the impact of permafrost melting on construction? What technologies do we have to deal with such a question. How will employment be affected? Will the industrial base of some northern communities widen as it becomes easier to access northern oil and gas? Will the subsistence base of some communities collapse because change is so rapid that adaptation lags? (an observation made by residents of Sanakilaqu). In individual terms what will happen to employment? How should we modify traditional housing design in the face of warmer (and perhaps wetter) times? Should we prepare for increased flooding? Will there be increased incidence of forest fire? Transport disruptions because of slope instability and landslides? It is expected that will be manifest in an increased incidence of natural hazards that could threaten individual communities, forest fires, flooding, landslides, and catastrophic storms. Have communities had experience of these in the past? How frequently? What magnitude? How did they cope? Perhaps if there is experience with stresses such as these they would cope quite easily.

To deal with questions such as these (and a host of others) a useful data-base must not just identify possible changes, but more importantly would allow users to seek possible approaches to a given problem by having access to information that would assist them in problem solving. The data base is aimed at assisting in individuals, communities, businesses and agencies in adapting to change. Ideally it will assist in identifying information needs and ultimately serve as a resource that anyone can use to seek information about change An information system would have two important uses. It would,

  1. Provide base-line data thus enabling users to build scenarios for local impacts. If there is detailed information on current population and economy it should be possible to predict how a community economy may respond to environmental changes; or given the prevailing permafrost environment and information on temperature trends a community may get a sense of melting impacts.
  2. Enable users to investigate impacts, responses, etc. of others in similar circumstances to their own. This would be both a labour saving and cost saving device, reducing the need for extensive time-consuming primary research and allowing users to focus on the most likely approaches or solutions. Given the pace of change time is an important consideration.

Data tests

A number of tests can be performed on sources of information to determine their applicability and value to the users of the information:

Sanakilaqu case example -- community level information needs

The knowledge we tend to rely on in making prognosis about climate change is scientific, gathered as a matter of necessity through sampling and painting very broad pictures. We can come up with prognosis regarding the retreat of the continuous permafrost zone or what happens to river basins. But the scale of such analysis or interpolation from one region to another may be inappropriate given the diverse geographies of the north and diverse location and economic structure of individual communities. The real nature of impacts can only be gauged by understanding the economic structure of individual communities. For example, there are a number of studies that speak to changes in wildlife harvests or changes in industrialization that may be brought about by climate change.

Data provided from a classic study of the community of Sanakilaqu in Hudson's Bay in the late 1980's (Quigley and McBride 1987) serves to illustrate the complexity of decisions facing northern communities and a sense of the complex information needed to address them. As has been done in many communities in the north they mapped out the community micro-economy in detail, identifying transactions between the wage and non-wage sectors, and estimated that the replacement value of country food and various bi-products of harvesting was some 56% of total community income. However the distribution of wealth in the community was such that most salaried employment (teaching, government administration) lay in the hands of non-natives, essentially meaning that harvesting constituted 70% of household income for the Indigenous population. Because of its links to the bio-sphere it is this part of the economy that is most at risk from climate change. Wein (1995) (working with Yukon FN communities amongst others) speculated on the possible impact of global warming on food consumption patterns in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Effects, she argues will vary from region to region. Overall, she concluded that global warming would probably lead to greater dependency on store purchased food-stuffs as consumption patterns shift to compensate for the loss of country food harvests. Prices in northern communities are high and in communities with a similar profile to Sanakilaqu that portion of society with the lowest income could lose the most (country food all its associated nutritional and cultural attributes) and would have to pay the most in terms of proportion of cash income to compensate for the loss. From the standpoint of physical health shift to increased dependence on store-bought food would, at best, be a mixed blessing. It would perhaps mitigate the adverse impacts that may arise as warming exacerbates the role of contaminants in the country food chain; but give rise to new medical problems as processed foods increasingly replace traditional diet.

The scenario described here is perhaps overly negative given recent events that may bring about marked shifts in the relative roles of the components of dual economies. Settlement of comprehensive land claims across northern Canada and the emergence of Nunavut should result in a broader range of wage employment opportunities for native populations, and this may go some way towards off-setting stresses created in those areas where environmental change will lead to a decease in food harvests. Additional opportunities may also arise as changing ocean conditions and permafrost melting could make extraction and transport of oil and natural gas from the north a lot cheaper resulting in growth in this sector along with increased wage employment for native populations (how much employment would be created?). The extent to which this would offset losses in the traditional sector would depend on cultural acceptance of new activities (are they accepted?) and the rate of local labor absorption (how much is this?). This case example is rather speculative, but it does illustrate the uncertainties regarding change as well as the need for detailed information on community economies required for dealing with it.