September 21, 2000
	Gary Kofinas, Don Russell, Craig Nicholson

	Phase One:  1995-1999
	How might changes in climate, oil development, tourism, and government spending affect the sustainability of Arctic Communities?

	Developed scenarios
	Built a Possible Futures Model that includes science and local knowledge
	Used the model as a discussion tool among scientists and between communities and scientists

	Awarded funding from NSF to three more years
	called “Advancing the Science of Integrated Assessment”

	Generate scenarios to be considered
	Determine impact zones around development
	Determine caribou, age and sex, within impact zones
	Determine size and type of impacts (ability to feed, more energy expended, etc) caused by development
	Translate to population level impacts

	not good enough to say that caribou were moved or that the development disrupted their feeding patterns.
	“show me the bodies”

	where and when do caribou move?
	habitat  - plants, snow, climate, insects
	role of habitat on diet, activity
	role of diet, activity on animal growth
	role of growth (fat) on reproduction
	role of reproduction on herd growth
	role of predation, harvest on herd growth
	how development alters habitat, activity,diet
	DEVELOPMENT   IMPACTS ON POPULATION

	Using input on range quality, ENERGY model tracks annual fat and protein levels of an individual caribou, linked to the POPULATION model which tracks change at the herd level

	…. what if there were:
	changes to habitat
	changes to caribou activity
	displacement from calving areas
	changes in climate
	changes in harvest
	…. models will project population effects

	Describe how caribou respond to natural changes
	Document/assume direct impacts of development
	Use the models to “walk” caribou through cumulative developments
	Translate to the population level

	Define population goals versus development tradeoffs,
	Recommend mitigative measures,
	Monitor individual and population level responses,
	Validate/evaluate model assumptions and predictions,
	Refine and update models, start again

	Projections of cumulative effects are only as good as your data and/or assumptions
	It is an iterative process
	What happens at one  time of year impacts on the herd the whole year - i.e. develop 1002 effects impacts of development on winter range

	Climate change a complicating factor, thus expect..
	Projections in terms of risk rather than absolutes
	Everyone has a role - industry, government, co-management groups, community hunters
	It is a requirement of Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA)

	Why?
		chance to discuss possible futures of region in informal setting
		way to discuss study methods & findings on a regional level
	Who?
		Kaktovik, Old Crow, Ft. McPherson, Aklavik, Arctic Village/Venetie
	When?
		Winter 2000

	Scenarios are  ‘stories about the future’
	stories
				may or may not be true
				have an interesting plot
				hold together well (consistent, coherent)
	the future
				is surprising and unpredictable
				but it’s still worth trying to be prepared!