Residents of several northern communities soon will be able to use a computer model to explore what the future could hold for their communities. People in Old Crow, Aklavik, Ft. McPherson and Arctic Village will be able to run a program called the Possible Futures Model to explore changes that could affect the North.

The model builds scenarios based on four major factors: climate change, oil development, tourism and government funding. After selecting one or more of these scenarios, the computer model will run the program 40 years into the future, giving residents some idea of what their communities could be like down the road.

The computer model is part of a major research effort called the Sustainability of Arctic Communities Project that is funded by the National Science Foundation. Started in 1995, the project's aim is to bring the information that researchers have been gathering on the North for decades back to the people who live there.

"The project came from having spent a lot of money on climate change in the North, but not having looked closely at how changes would affect people there," explains Gary Kofinas, the community involvement leader for the project. "We're trying to incorporate local knowledge, and the objective is to improve the ability of communities and scientists to talk about the future."

The four communities are all in the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd, which has been the focus of a huge amount of research because of proposed resource development on the herd's calving grounds on the Arctic Coast in Alaska. Kofinas explains that people living in the North wanted more access to the information that was being gathered in their area on caribou, climate change and other subjects. Northern residents felt that they were not well connected to the people doing the research.

"There has been a sense of not having control. So we're trying to establish a new way of doing business, a new way of doing northern research, by looking at issues focused on what communities say is important to them," he says.

The communities are contributing information about the caribou herd, hunting patterns, factors affecting local employment and about why people might leave or return to the communities. The 22 researchers who have worked on the project have looked at many aspects of change in the north.

They have run experiments on how climate change could affect arctic plants, studied satellite images to determine caribou calving success, and looked at how the wage economy affects subsistence hunting. They have also looked at how both changes in the vegetation and energy development could affect caribou.

This local knowledge and scientific information is being combined to address community concerns. For example, scientists predict that global warming could increase snowfall in the North. Deeper snow might alter the herd's migration pattern and make it harder for people to get out on the land, affecting people's ability to hunt caribou. Similar concerns were raised about an earlier break-up of the rivers in spring.

When researchers began working on this project in the communities, they found that they first had to define "sustainability." The word bothers some community people because it suggests that the status quo is acceptable. Northern residents prefer to think in terms of community goals.

"That step was important because many consider "sustainability" to be in the eye of the beholder," says Kofinas.

Local knowledge and scientific research is being integrated in the Possible Futures Model. Kofinas explains that the purpose of the model is not to predict what life will be like 40 years down the road, but to generate discussion about change. When people can visualize the results that different changes can bring, it can make it easier to set priorities for shaping those changes to reflect community values. The model also helps to identify what additional research is needed.

"The researchers are under no illusion that they can predict the future with any accuracy. But we do believe that the Possible Futures Model is a way for groups of people to learn from each other and to discuss what we know and don't know about the future," says Kofinas.

For example, someone using the model might select a scenario in which there is no major change in the climate, but most of the Alaskan calving grounds of the Porcupine Caribou Herd are developed. Running the model may show that in the future the population of the herd may decline and the community members may not get enough caribou to meet community needs.

The Possible Futures Model is still being developed, but the emphasis on making it accessible is already clear. "It's like a computer game, but there's a lot of science behind it. It will be a wonderful tool for the schools as well," says Kofinas.

The project has also put together a series of GIS maps based on the range of the Porcupine Caribou Herd. The maps will have information on hunting levels, migration patterns, land management regimes and other factors affecting the herd. This fall a series of workshops will be held in the communities to talk about the project and its findings.

A preliminary version of the Possible Futures Model can be found at www.taiga.net. For more information on the Sustainability of Arctic Communities Project,contact Environment Canada in Whitehorse.